By: Johnny Falduto
Clemson (2-2, 0-2 ACC) seeks its first ACC win of the 2023 season and will attempt to hand Syracuse (4-0, 0-0) its first loss of the season as they travel to the JMA Wireless Dome for a noon ET kickoff on Saturday.
Syracuse is coming off of a 29-16 win at home over Army, where they outscored the Black Knights 26-6 in the second half. The Tigers are coming off of a 31-24 OT loss to No. 4 Florida State. Clemson is 32-8 in games following a loss under HC Dabo Swinney and 9-2 all-time against the Orange.
Quarterback Matchup
Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader has completed 72 of his 108 passing attempts through four games this season for 972 YDS, 6 TD and 3 INT, and leads the Orange with 316 rushing yards on 46 carries for another six scores. He went 18-26 for 167 YDS, 1 TD and 1 INT and carried it 21 times for 71 YDS and 1 TD in a 27-21 loss to the Tigers at Memorial Stadium last season.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik has completed 96 of his 145 passing attempts through four games this season for 976 YDS, 9 TD and 2 INT and will be making just his sixth career start for Clemson against the Orange on Saturday. He turned in perhaps the most impressive start of his young career last week against No. 4 Florida State, going 25-38 for 283 YDS and 2 TD.
Running Backs, Receivers
The Orange are averaging 213.3 rushing yards per game. Lequint Allen (62 CAR, 311 YDS, 6 TD) is the team’s lead back, and he’s coming off of his second 100-yard game of the season against Army last week. Ike Daniels (17 CAR, 99 YDS) and Juwaun Price (25 CAR, 90 YDS) are also featured in the team’s rushing attack.
For the Tigers, it’s Will Shipley (54 CAR, 292 YDS, 1 TD) and Phil Mafah (35 CAR, 235 YDS) leading the rushing attack that’s produced 199.0 YDS/GM so far this season. Shipley ranks second in the ACC and eighth nationally with 27 career rushing touchdowns, and has taken on a bigger role in the Tigers’ passing game through the team’s first four games this season (15 REC, 96 YDS, 2 TD). In last season’s 27-21 win over Syracuse, it was his 50-yard TD run that gave the Tigers the lead in the fourth quarter, and he would finish with a season-high 172 YDS and 2 TD on 27 CAR in the win.
Garrett Shrader and the Orange offense have spread the ball out well through the air, with three receivers sitting well above the 200-yard mark so far this season. Damien Alford leads the way with 17 REC for 247 YDS and 1 TD, Donovan Brown has caught 15 passes for 239 YDS and 1 TD, and Umari Hatcher has added 13 REC for 225 YDS and 2 TD himself. All three receivers are big-play threats, averaging 14.5, 15.9, and 17.3 YDS/CAT, respectively. Clemson’s pass defense has been among the best in FBS so far this season, giving the Orange’s passing attack its first real test of the season come Saturday.
On the other side, Clemson has four receivers over the 100-yard mark on the season, led by Beaux Collins (17 REC, 226 YDS, 1 TD) and breakout freshman Tyler Brown (12 REC, 163 YDS, 2 TD), who led the team with 5 REC for 84 YDS in the loss to Florida State. Troy Stellato has also come up big in several spots and is a name to monitor going forward as he continues to get more involved in the Tigers’ passing game.
Antonio Williams, Clemson’s freshman All-American last season and No. 1 receiver going into the season, missed last week’s game against Florida State due to an ankle injury. As of Wednesday, Dabo Swinney said that he is “making progress” and remains questionable for Saturday.
Defense
Clemson comes in with the No. 8 total defense in FBS, giving up just 262.8 YDS/GM to opponents through four games this season. Syracuse isn’t far behind- they’re 15th, at 274.3 YDS/GM- though it’s fair to say the Tigers have gone up against far superior offenses than the Orange thus far.
Statistically, Syracuse LB Marlowe Wax leads all Orange defenders entering play on Saturday with 31 tackles, 2 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. CB Isaiah Johnson holds a PFF grade of 82.3 against the run and an 80 in coverage, allowing 8 REC at 10.4 YDS/REC on 14 targets this season. S Alijah Clark has also been impressive on the back-end of the 3-3-5 defensive scheme, grading out at 83.4 in coverage and a team-high 86.2 in tackling.
Clemson’s defense has been among the best units in the country in 2023, led by LB duo Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (23 TKL, 1 sack) and Barrett Carter (18 TKL). DE Xavier Thomas had his best showing of the season against Florida State with 4 TKL and 1 sack, and freshman DE TJ Parker has made his presence felt early in the season with 11 TKL and 1 sack.
On the back-end, Clemson’s pass defense has impressed all season- though it is unclear if the team will be without its top corner, Nate Wiggins, after he had to be helped off the field in Saturday’s loss to the Seminoles.
Odds, Projections
Clemson comes into the game as 6.5-point favorites, with four of the last six matchups between the two teams having been decided by 6 points or less. Clemson is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games overall, 1-5 against the spread in its last six against Syracuse, and an astounding 2-13 against the spread in its last 15 September games. Syracuse is 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five and 8-2 overall in its last 10 home games.
ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+ model projects a slim 27-25 win for the Tigers, giving them a 55% probability of winning the game. The College Football Power Index (FPI) leans the other way, giving the Orange a 55.2% likelihood to pull off the upset.
Kickoff between Clemson and Syracuse is set for Noon ET on Saturday. For live play-by-play coverage, tune into 97.5/105.5 in the Upstate, right here on theroarfm.com, or on The ROAR mobile app.
